Assessing rockfall susceptibility in steep and overhanging slopes using three-dimensional analysis of failure mechanisms     

B. Matasci  G. M. Stock  M. Jaboyedoff  D. Carrea  B. D. Collins  A. Guérin  G. Matasci  L. Ravanel 《Landslides》2018,15(5):859-878

Rockfalls strongly influence the evolution of steep rocky landscapes and represent a significant hazard in mountainous areas. Defining the most probable future rockfall source areas is of primary importance for both geomorphological investigations and hazard assessment. Thus, a need exists to understand which areas of a steep cliff are more likely to be affected by a rockfall. An important analytical gap exists between regional rockfall susceptibility studies and block-specific geomechanical calculations. Here we present methods for quantifying rockfall susceptibility at the cliff scale, which is suitable for sub-regional hazard assessment (hundreds to thousands of square meters). Our methods use three-dimensional point clouds acquired by terrestrial laser scanning to quantify the fracture patterns and compute failure mechanisms for planar, wedge, and toppling failures on vertical and overhanging rock walls. As a part of this work, we developed a rockfall susceptibility index for each type of failure mechanism according to the interaction between the discontinuities and the local cliff orientation. The susceptibility for slope parallel exfoliation-type failures, which are generally hard to identify, is partly captured by planar and toppling susceptibility indexes. We tested the methods for detecting the most susceptible rockfall source areas on two famously steep landscapes, Yosemite Valley (California, USA) and the Drus in the Mont-Blanc massif (France). Our rockfall susceptibility models show good correspondence with active rockfall sources. The methods offer new tools for investigating rockfall hazard and improving our understanding of rockfall processes.  相似文献   

Location-based environmental factors contributing to rainfall-triggered debris flows in the Ba river catchment,northwest Viti Levu island,Fiji     

M. Stephens  J. H. Lowry  A. R. Ram 《Landslides》2018,15(1):145-159

Mass movements in tropical Pacific small island developing states (SIDS) can be devastating although studies are relatively few and contributing environmental factors are not often investigated in detail. On 25 January 2012, following 3 days of heavy monsoonal rainfall (c. 550 mm) during a La Niña episode, more than 150 debris flows were triggered in the western part of the Ba river catchment of northwest Viti Levu island, Fiji. Reconnaissance field survey and geographical information system (GIS) analyses using high-resolution satellite imagery were carried out to investigate factors that may have led to the occurrence of the debris flows in the catchment. We evaluated the correlation between the density of mass movements (number of mass movements/km²) and several continuous variables using data measured within the GIS. There was a weak but significant positive correlation between mass movement density and elevation (r = 0.38, p value < 0.01), cyclonic precipitation (r = 0.37, p value < 0.01) and stream density (r = 0.31, p value < 0.01). Ninety-three percent of the mass movements occur within a plantation of Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) on slopes oriented mainly to the northeast and east on (trade) windward slopes and may be significant factors for their development. Although forests generally have a stabilizing effect on slopes, the plantation at Ba was a mature stand on its second plantation cycle and is a species that has a shallow rooting system making it more susceptible to failure.  相似文献   

Great South Bay After Sandy: Changes in Circulation and Flushing due to New Inlet     

Claudia Hinrichs  Charles N. Flagg  Robert E. Wilson 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(8):2172-2190

The coastal ocean model FVCOM is applied to quantify the changes in circulation, flushing, and exposure time in Great South Bay, New York, after Superstorm Sandy breached the barrier island in 2012. Since then, the lagoon system is connected to the Atlantic via five instead of four inlets. The model simulations are run on two high-resolution unstructured grids, one for the pre-breach configuration, one including the new inlet, with tidal-only forcing, and summer and winter forcing conditions. Despite its small cross-sectional size, the breach has a relatively large net inflow that leads to a strengthening of the along-bay through-flow in Great South Bay (GSB); the tidally driven volume transport in central GSB quadrupled. The seasonal forcing scenarios show that the southwesterly sea breeze in summer slows down the tidally driven flow, while the forcing conditions in winter are highly variable, and the circulation is dependent on wind direction and offshore sea level. Changes in flushing and exposure time associated with the modified transport patterns are evaluated using a Eulerian passive tracer technique. Results show that the new inlet produced a significant decrease in flushing time (approximately 35% reduction under summer wind conditions and 20% reduction under winter wind conditions). Maps of exposure time reflect the local changes in circulation and flushing.  相似文献   

Morphological and Phylogenetic Studies of a Copepod Species,Irodes parupenei Ho and Lin (2007), Infecting Parupeneus rubescens in Saudi Arabia     

DKHIL Mohamed A  ALHAFIDH Wejdan  AL-QURAISHY Saleh  ALOTAIBI Mashael  BANAEEM Manal  ALSALEH Thekra  ABDEL-GABER Rewaida 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2022,21(2):457-464

Dammam City is one of the gorgeous coastal areas in the Arabian Gulf of Saudi Arabia.The present study aimed to ex-amine one of the copepod species infecting the rosy goatfish that represents a highly consumed fish species by the local population in the Arabian Gulf.The copepod species isolated from the infected fish specimens belong to the family Taeniacanthidae and was iden-tified as Irodes parupenei Ho and Lin(2007),primarily based on its morphological,morphometric,and ultrastructural characteris-tics,especially the structures of the dorsal cephalic area,segmentation of the first antenna,the absence of the maxilliped claw in the fe-male specimens,and the setation and spinulation of the legs 2-4 for the adult females are of great significance in the taxonomic iden-tification.The 18S rRNA gene sequence was analyzed to ensure the precise identity and exact taxonomic status of the copepod species.The result showed that this copepod species belong to Taenicanthidae and closely related to Irodes sauridi(gb|JF781550.1)in the same taxon.More details on the specificity of the goatfish for Irodes species and identifying these parasitic taxa using molecular analysis are given in the present study.  相似文献   

数码相机与全站仪集成原理与方法     

徐进军  H. Ingensand  张民伟 《测绘通报》2006,(10):5-8

普通数码相机以其价廉、灵活的特点在实际工程中得到广泛的应用。但物镜畸变较大而且内外方位元素求解复杂,从一定程度上限制了其进一步的应用。结合数码相机的特点,讨论数码相机与全站仪集成的有关原理、方法及实现过程,使非量测相机量测化。通过室内实验,说明这种集成是可行的,能满足工程上的测量要求。  相似文献   

Seasonal Variations of CH_4 Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China Are Driven by Agricultural Activities     

Wenjing HUANG  Timothy J. GRIFFIS  Cheng HU  Wei XIAO  Xuhui LEE 《大气科学进展》2021,38(9):1537-1551

Developed regions of the world represent a major atmospheric methane(CH_4) source, but these regional emissions remain poorly constrained. The Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region of China is densely populated(about 16% of China's total population) and consists of large anthropogenic and natural CH_4 sources. Here, atmospheric CH_4 concentrations measured at a 70-m tall tower in the YRD are combined with a scale factor Bayesian inverse(SFBI) modeling approach to constrain seasonal variations in CH_4 emissions. Results indicate that in 2018 agricultural soils(AGS, rice production) were the main driver of seasonal variability in atmospheric CH_4 concentration. There was an underestimation of emissions from AGS in the a priori inventories(EDGAR—Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research v432 or v50), especially during the growing seasons. Posteriori CH_4 emissions from AGS accounted for 39%(4.58 Tg, EDGAR v432) to 47%(5.21 Tg, EDGAR v50) of the total CH_4 emissions. The posteriori natural emissions(including wetlands and water bodies) were1.21 Tg and 1.06 Tg, accounting for 10.1%(EDGAR v432) and 9.5%(EDGAR v50) of total emissions in the YRD in2018. Results show that the dominant factor for seasonal variations in atmospheric concentration in the YRD was AGS,followed by natural sources. In summer, AGS contributed 42%(EDGAR v432) to 64%(EDGAR v50) of the CH_4 concentration enhancement while natural sources only contributed about 10%(EDGAR v50) to 15%(EDGAR v432). In addition, the newer version of the EDGAR product(EDGAR v50) provided more reasonable seasonal distribution of CH_4 emissions from rice cultivation than the old version(EDGAR v432).  相似文献   

On the Importance of High-Resolution in Large-Scale Ocean Models     

Eric P.CHASSIGNET  Xiaobiao XU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(10):1621-1634

Eddying global ocean models are now routinely used for ocean prediction, and the value-added of a better representation of the observed ocean variability and western boundary currents at that resolution is currently being evaluated in climate models. This overview article begins with a brief summary of the impact on ocean model biases of resolving eddies in several global ocean–sea ice numerical simulations. Then, a series of North and Equatorial Atlantic configurations are used to show that an increase of the horizontal resolution from eddy-resolving to submesoscale-enabled together with the inclusion of high-resolution bathymetry and tides significantly improve the models' abilities to represent the observed ocean variability and western boundary currents. However, the computational cost of these simulations is extremely large, and for these simulations to become routine, close collaborations with computer scientists are essential to ensure that numerical codes can take full advantage of the latest computing architecture.  相似文献   

The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020     

Chaofan LI  Riyu LU  Nick DUNSTONE  Adam A.SCAIFE  Philip E.BETT  Fei ZHENG 《大气科学进展》2021,38(12):2055-2066

During June and July of 2020, the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding. This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event, based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system. The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin, which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature (SST) and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH, and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well. We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet (EAJ). The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall. However, the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall. In observations, the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020, which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin, and favor more mei-yu rainfall. The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes. This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall, hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

Experiments of DSAEF_LTP Model with Two Improved Parameters for Accumulated Precipitation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Southeast China     

秦思  贾莉  丁晨晨  任福民  约翰·L·麦克布莱  李国平 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(3):286-296

The Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) utilises an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for the forecast track, while the precipitation forecast is obtained by finding analog cyclones, and making a precipitation forecast from an ensemble of the analogs. This study addresses TCs that occurred from 2004 to 2019 in Southeast China with 47 TCs as training samples and 18 TCs for independent forecast experiments. Experiments use four model versions. The control experiment DSAEF_LTP_1 includes three factors including TC track, landfall season, and TC intensity to determine analogs. Versions DSAEF_LTP_2, DSAEF_LTP_3, and DSAEF_LTP_4 respectively integrate improved similarity region, improved ensemble method, and improvements in both parameters. Results show that the DSAEF_LTP model with new values of similarity region and ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_4) performs best in the simulation experiment, while the DSAEF_LTP model with new values only of ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_3) performs best in the forecast experiment. The reason for the difference between simulation (training sample) and forecast (independent sample) may be that the proportion of TC with typical tracks (southeast to northwest movement or landfall over Southeast China) has changed significantly between samples. Forecast performance is compared with that of three global dynamical models (ECMWF, GRAPES, and GFS) and a regional dynamical model (SMS-WARMS). The DSAEF_LTP model performs better than the dynamical models and tends to produce more false alarms in accumulated forecast precipitation above 250 mm and 100 mm. Compared with TCs without heavy precipitation or typical tracks, TCs with these characteristics are better forecasted by the DSAEF_LTP model.  相似文献   

Effective sea ice area based on a thickness threshold     

Ford  Victoria L.  Frauenfeld  Oliver W.  Nowotarski  Christopher J.  Bombardi  Rodrigo J. 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3541-3552

As Arctic sea ice declines in response to climate change, a shift from thick multiyear ice to a thinner ice cover is occurring. With this transition, ice thicknesses approach a threshold below which ice no longer insulates the atmosphere from oceanic surface fluxes. While this is well known, there are no estimates of the magnitude of this threshold, nor of the proportion of sea ice area that is below this threshold as ice thins. We determine this threshold by simulating the atmospheric response to varying thicknesses, ranging from 0.0 to 2.0 m and determine that threshold to be 0.40–0.50 m. The resulting “effective” ice area is 4–14% lower than reported total ice area, as 0.39–0.97 × 10⁶ km² of the total ice area falls below the threshold throughout the twentieth century, including during notable ice minima. The atmosphere above large non-insulating ice-covered regions is susceptible to more than 2 °C of warming despite ice presence. Observed mean Arctic Ocean ice thickness is projected to fall below this threshold as early as the mid-2020s. Studies on ocean–atmosphere interactions in relation to sea ice area should focus on this insulating sea ice area, where ice is at least 0.40–0.50 m thick, and treat ice regions below 0.40–0.50 m thickness with caution.

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